RS VI Complex Disinformation

I will wait to say more about Eli until after we meet.

Up to this point I have kept the subject of disinformation simple. In its real life form it is far more complex and sophisticated. It is not unlike what is referred to in art as figure ground ambiguity. Our eyes are designed by nature to see certain relationships that enhance our ability to make judgements about reality. For example, closer objects tend to be more detailed, textured and exhibit greater color saturation. Reverse the figure to ground relationship and close objects appear far and far objects appear close.

The following couple of paragraphs are from a partially completed story I wrote about the use of disinformation. The details are based on real life proposals to the military for weather manipulation. In the story the US military gets wind of the fact that an invasion of Taiwan by the Chinese is imminent and they need to develop a plan to stall the invasion so they will have time to assume a tactical response position. A General asks his researcher about his plan and the researcher responds:

“Virtual weather patterns could be created using nanotechnology, microscopic particles that communicate with each other and larger central systems. We want to create a simulated weather condition so the Chinese believe poor weather conditions between China and Taiwan make it undesirable to launch an invasion at this time.

We can launch an ADV (Aerospace Delivery Vehicle) in eight hours. It will carry CHEM SC (Chemical Smart Cloud) nanotechnology. We’ve done the COMP MOD (computer modeling). We will add CBD Sensors (Carbon Black Dust Sensors) to prevent them from surveilling our nanoparticle communications.”

“Let’s do it,” replies General Mayle enthusiastically. “You think it will work?”

“The idea is to alter their perception of reality. They won’t have any reason to consider falsifiability validations of their computer models since they have long since been proven accurate for a two to five day modeling of weather. No counter factuals will arise in their data. They will simply respond by standing down until either weather data simulations prove their perceived data as incorrect, or they become suspicious after direct observation negated their predictions. Either way we will buy some time.”

There are patterns to constructing disinformation sequences. They start with an argument generally followed by a proposal and then the action necessary to bring it to fruition. In the situation demonstrated above the argument is that the Chinese will postpone their invasion of Taiwan if they feel weather conditions are bad. The proposal is to simulate bad weather conditions. The action involves the actual launching of an ADV carrying a CHEM SC with added CBD Sensors.

Most people have heard of Occam’s Razor. Occam’s Razor simply states that the most likely explanation for an event is the simplest one barring other physical evidence. In the situation I described above, Occam’s Razor dictates the weather conditions are bad in the strait between China and Taiwan. But the Chinese would be wrong if they believed it.

For explanations of events that are not constructed disinformation, Occam’s Razor is useful. Constructed disinformation counts on the use of Occam’s Razor to deceive.